Main Conference Day One: Thursday, June 24, 2010

8:30 Chairperson’s Opening Remarks

8:45 OPENING KEYNOTE ADDRESS: After The “Pine Beetle”: Evaluating the Opportunities for Private Investment in British-Columbian Silviculture

IQPC is honored to welcome Pat Bell, the Canadian Minister for Forest & Range, as the opening keynote speaker at the 7th Timberland Investment Summit. Pat will use his keynote session to expound on the topic of opportunities for private investment in silviculture in British Columbia following the mountain pine beetle infestation, also focusing on the new timber pricing policy just announced.

9:30 ANALYST KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Inflation, Deflation, And The Threat Of “Double-Dip”: Examining The Impact Of Possible Economic Scenarios On Timberland Values

Timberland’s effectiveness as an inflation hedge is well documented: over the course of the 20th century timberland outperformed inflation by an average of 3.3% a year. But is inflation really on the cards? Many economists have argued that deflation is a likelier scenario, and some have raised the (admittedly rather horrible) spectre of a double-dip recession. The question is: how will timberland values be affected by each of these scenarios? To what extent should economic uncertainty influence investment strategies in the asset class? IQPC is honored to welcome as its keynote speaker Steven Chercover, one of the world’s top forest & paper products analysts, who will focus on:

• Examining the inflationary pressures in the US economy: dollar weakness and expanded monetary supply
• Examining the deflationary pressures: Widespread credit contraction and unemployment increases
• Indicators as to whether inflationary or deflationary pressures will triumph over the next few years
• Understanding how timberland values respond to inflationary, deflationary, and recessionary pressures – and what each of the scenarios will mean for a given portfolio

10:45 Strategic Considerations On Investing In The Canadian Forestry Sector

11:30 The US Housing Market: Understanding The Future Prospects For The Major Driver Of Future Timberland Demand

For a timberland discussion to be meaningful, the US housing market is the 8,000 pound gorilla in the room that needs to be addressed. Weakness in the US housing market has traditionally been a depressive influence on the lumber market, but recently the situation has been complicated by a weakened supply chain which has created the oddly anomalous spectacle of soaring lumber futures. How will these forces resolve themselves in the short, medium, and long term – and what will be the implications for timberland investments? Keith Balter, Senior Economist of Forest Capital Partners and a longstanding commentator on the US housing market, will provide meaningful insights in the following key areas:

• A closer look at the performance of the US housing market over previous decades
• Examining the correlation between housing starts, lumber prices, and timberland values
• Gauging the future prospects for the US housing market: demographics and economics
• Does US housing matter to the US timber market? Housing and market fundamentals

12:15 Taking The Temperature Of The North American Biomass Market

With a near national consensus on the desirability of renewable energy sources, the biomass market is increasing in size and importance – and with major implications for timberland investors. What are the near-term growth prospects? Longer-term, what proportion of energy needs might theoretically be met by woody biomass?

• Taking a closer look at the pressures driving the growth of biomass as a fuel source:
• The demand for renewable energy sources
• The need to reduce energy dependency
• Federal and state assistance, including BCAP (Biomass Crop Assistance Program)
• Understanding how the biomass market varies on a state-bystate basis
• How the growth in the biomass market affects the overall supply-demand equation for timberland

2:00 Factors Affecting North American Supply: Mountain Pine Beetle, Harvesting Trends, And The Health Of The Supply Chain

Several factors are complicating North American supply-side dynamics. On the one hand, due to harvest delays, stumpage levels are at an all-time high, and some commentators have speculated on the possibility of a supply-side glut if demand returns and everyone harvests at the same time. On the other hand, the supply chain is weakened. How effectively and quickly can harvesting actually take place, even if the will is there? And finally, the Mountain Pine Beetle continues to lay its disruptive larvae in the middle of the supply side equation. Brendan Lowney and Rocky Goodnow – two leading experts in North American supply-side dynamics – will look at this key issue from a number of directions, including:

• Examining the impact of Pine Beetle infestations on North American inventories
• Understanding the effect of the economic downturn on the health of sawmills and logging companies
• Quantifying the extent of harvest delays on overall stumpage levels: Will the net consequence of an uptick in demand be a glut of supply?
• Forecasting the impact of regulatory changes on supply dynamics

2:45 Timberland Values: Time To Buy Or Time To Sell?

With so much economic uncertainty and so many conflicting variables, the future of timberland values may well seem impossible to predict. But for timberland investors the stakes (and the rewards) are high, and it’s essential that decisions are made with the full complement of available insight. For this extended panel session, we bring together four heavyweight timberland thinkers to roll up their sleeves and get deep into the topic. A must attend panel for any serious timberland investor.

• What determines the price of timberland? Getting to grips with the full range of contributing factors
• Examining the historical price record: Do timberland values move in cycles?
• A closer look at the prospects for paper, pulp, packaging, wood products – both internationally and at home
• Incorporating supply issues into the value equation: How capable is the North American productive base of responding to demand? What are the implications for timberland prices?
• Making an informed decision about whether timberland values are currently near a top, representing a selling opportunity, or near a bottom, representing a buying opportunity

4:00 Interactive Roundtable Discussions:

Identifying Investment Opportunities in Canadian Forestry

Keta Kosman
Publisher
Madison’s

Investment Opportunities in Brazilian Timberland

Aldo de Cresci Neto
Partner
FMGCN

Unlocking Liquidity in Timberland Investments

David Branch
Managing Director
John Hancock Financial Services

5:00 End Of Main Conference Day One